Open Interest Metrics Analysis Indicates Potential Surge in Price Movement
Bitcoin’s price action over the weekend has been quite sluggish, reflecting the indecision and fatigue seemingly hovering over the cryptocurrency market at the moment. After a dour performance during the week, the premier cryptocurrency has continued to trade within the $92,000 – $95,000 range on Saturday, May 17. With the choppy price action, doubt about Bitcoin reclaiming its all-time high of $108,786 is starting to creep in. However, the latest on-chain data suggests that the market leader could be gearing up for significant price movements over the next few weeks, based on cyclical patterns in open interest metrics.
Open Interest Metrics Predict What’s Next For BTC Price
In a recent post on the X platform, blockchain analytics firm Alphractal delved into fresh on-chain observations revolving around the price of Bitcoin and the open interest (OI) cycle. According to the market intelligence firm, the BTC open interest data is exhibiting certain patterns that have coincided with major price moves in the past.
“The open interest metric is one of the key indicators of future volatility in the cryptocurrency market,” explains Alexei Kirienko, managing partner at EXANTE. “Essentially, it shows how much money market participants are willing to bet on a certain price direction through derivatives.”
Typically, the open interest metric measures the total amount of money flowing into BTC derivatives at any given period. Meanwhile, the OI Delta indicator estimates changes in the open interest over a specific timeframe.
Firstly, Alphractal highlighted that the 30-day Open Interest Delta recently reached the same levels seen during the Bitcoin price rise to its previous all-time high around $73,737 in 2024. This pattern shows that the BTC market could be at the beginning of a cyclical behavioral change.
Alphractal said: “A familiar pattern is emerging: alternating cycles of increase and decrease in the Open Interest Delta — what we might call Phase 1 and Phase 2. After a strong buildup of positions (positive Delta), we often see a nearly proportional drop (negative Delta), showing clear cyclical behavior in the market.”
Historical Patterns and Their Significance for the Current Situation
Furthermore, Alphractal noted that the 180-day Open Interest Delta offers a more interesting insight into the Bitcoin price trajectory in the coming weeks. According to the market intelligence firm, a negative 180-day OI Delta metric is usually associated with a market bottom or an accumulation trend.
As shown in the chart, the 180-day Open Interest Delta sits just above the negative territory, which suggests that the Bitcoin price could witness increased volatility in the coming weeks. However, it is worth mentioning that a cross beneath the zero threshold could also signal the start of a new consolidation phase.
“Historically, when the 180-day Open Interest Delta approaches negative values after a prolonged period of positive momentum, it often precedes significant market movements,” comments Maria Stankevich, an analyst from RoboForex. “In 2021 and 2024, similar patterns preceded both powerful rallies and deep corrections.”
Alphractal concluded: “Overall, Open Interest has not grown proportionally like it did from October 2023 to early 2024 — and again from October 2024 into early 2025. These yearly patterns may suggest a fractal behavior in investor risk appetite.”
Fundamental Factors Contributing to Potential Volatility
Beyond technical metrics, there are several fundamental factors that may contribute to increased Bitcoin volatility in the coming weeks:
- Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Global financial markets are facing uncertainty due to inflation concerns and interest rate expectations. Historically, periods of macroeconomic instability have often correlated with increased Bitcoin volatility.
- Institutional Flows: Bitcoin spot ETFs, launched in early 2025, continue to show unstable flows. “We’re observing periods of significant inflows alternating with periods of profit-taking,” notes James Butterweck, an analyst from CoinShares. “This instability in institutional flows could amplify volatility in the spot market.”
- Upcoming Regulatory Decisions: Expected regulatory decisions regarding cryptocurrency markets in several key jurisdictions could serve as catalysts for significant price movements.
- Technological Updates: Planned Bitcoin protocol upgrades and development of layer-2 solutions may impact network activity and investor sentiment.
Technical Analysis Points to Key Levels
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is forming a potentially significant structure on the daily chart. “BTC price is consolidating in a narrowing range, forming what technical analysts call a ‘volatility compression’ pattern,” explains Victor Pergamenschikov, a technical analyst from TradingView.
“Key levels to watch include resistance at $108,800 (the current all-time high) and support at $90,000 (a psychologically important level that coincides with several technical indicators). A breakout in either direction could trigger a significant price movement,” he adds.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart shows a neutral reading around 50, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions and leaving room for movement in either direction.
Possible Scenarios Moving Forward
Based on current open interest metrics, technical analysis, and fundamental factors, several potential scenarios for Bitcoin’s price can be identified:
Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout If the 180-day Open Interest Delta stabilizes and returns to positive values, this could coincide with a breakthrough above resistance at $108,800. In this case, Bitcoin could surge toward new highs in the $120,000 – $130,000 range, according to Fibonacci extension analysis.
Scenario 2: Continued Consolidation If the 180-day Open Interest Delta crosses the zero threshold and enters negative territory, this could indicate a prolonged period of consolidation. In this scenario, Bitcoin might continue trading in the $90,000 – $110,000 range for several weeks or even months.
Scenario 3: Correction If the combination of technical and fundamental factors turns negative, a correction to key support levels is possible. “The first significant support lies at $90,000, followed by $80,000 and $75,000,” notes Pergamenschikov. “Each of these levels corresponds to key technical and psychological barriers.”
Current Situation at a Glance
As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $103,367, reflecting a 0.4% decline in the past 24 hours. It’s worth noting some discrepancy between different data sources—while the article mentions a range of $92,000 – $95,000 on May 17, current data shows a higher price level.
This discrepancy itself may reflect volatility and rapid changes in the market, supporting the main idea about possible increased price fluctuations in the near future.
“The Bitcoin market is at a critical crossroads,” concludes Kirienko. “On one hand, we’re seeing signs of fatigue after the powerful rally since the beginning of the year. On the other hand, open interest metrics and technical patterns indicate that the period of low volatility may soon end with a significant price movement. Investors should prepare for potential increased volatility in the coming weeks.”