Whales Accumulate ADA in Anticipation of Institutional Recognition

Cardano (ADA) price is showing signs of a potential breakout as the odds of a spot Cardano exchange-traded fund (ETF) gaining approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have risen to 63%. This growing investor confidence is accompanied by significant whale activity, with large holders purchasing more than 80 million ADA tokens in the last 48 hours. Technical analysis points to a possible 75% rally to $1.32 if key resistance near $0.91 is overcome. The combination of increasing institutional interest and favorable chart patterns signals renewed focus on Cardano’s market performance.

Rising Institutional Interest and ETF Approval Odds

The probability of the SEC approving a Cardano spot ETF has increased from 56% to 63% in the past day, according to Polymarket data. This rise reflects growing investor confidence that regulatory approval will occur within the year.

Currently, Grayscale is the only firm with an official filing for a spot Cardano ETF with the SEC. The commission acknowledged this product earlier in the year. Grayscale previously played a key role in securing approval for the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S., which adds weight to their Cardano ETF application.

“Grayscale has significant experience dealing with the SEC on cryptocurrency ETF matters,” notes James Harris, crypto analyst from Blockchain Capital. “Their success with the Bitcoin ETF creates a positive precedent for Cardano ETF approval, especially given that the SEC has already acknowledged the application.”

In addition, Swiss asset manager 21Shares offers a Cardano exchange-traded product (ETP) managing over $72 million in assets. This demonstrates strong institutional interest in Cardano beyond the U.S. and creates additional pressure on the SEC to expand access to regulated ADA-based products for American investors.

Technical Analysis Points to Potential Breakout

Cardano’s price has been trading within a descending triangle pattern in recent weeks. It recently tested resistance near the $0.91 level, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. A clear breakout above this point could lead to a rise toward $1.32, marking a potential 75% gain.

Technical indicators support this possibility. The Directional Movement Index (DMI) shows the positive directional index (+DI) moving above the negative directional index (-DI), indicating growing bullish momentum. However, the Average Directional Index (ADX) is declining, which suggests the overall trend remains weak.

“The descending triangle pattern often precedes significant price movements,” explains Maria Stankevich, technical analyst from TradingView. “In Cardano’s case, many indicators are converging to suggest a potential upward breakout. The $0.91 level is critical—sustained movement above this could trigger accelerated movement toward targets above $1.30.”

If Cardano breaks out of the triangle on the weekly chart, it could signal a change from a bearish to a bullish long-term trend. This would be a key development for ADA’s price direction.

Market Activity Shows Whale Accumulation

Data from Santiment shows that whales have bought more than 80 million ADA tokens in the last 48 hours. Large purchases like these often precede significant price movements. This surge in demand could create strong buying pressure, helping Cardano break through key resistance levels.

Despite a recent 3% drop in ADA’s price and its fall to ninth place in market capitalization rankings, whale accumulation indicates that some investors expect a price recovery. The activity of these large holders suggests confidence in ADA’s potential for growth.

“When we see significant accumulation by large holders, especially during market downturns, it often indicates awareness of upcoming catalysts,” comments Alex Mashinsky, founder of cryptocurrency platform Celsius Network. “In Cardano’s case, the combination of potential ETF approval and upcoming technological upgrades creates an attractive opportunity for long-term investors.”

This buying behavior also reflects growing optimism linked to the rising chances of a Cardano ETF approval by the SEC. Increased institutional interest and whale accumulation together support a more positive price outlook for Cardano.

Such factors may contribute to stabilizing ADA and potentially triggering an upward price movement soon.

Fundamental Factors Supporting Cardano

Beyond technical factors and the ETF catalyst, Cardano possesses several fundamental advantages that could support long-term price growth.

First, Cardano continues to develop its ecosystem. Following the implementation of smart contracts through the Alonzo upgrade, the platform is actively attracting developers to create decentralized applications. According to DeFiLlama data, the total value locked (TVL) in the Cardano ecosystem has exceeded $650 million, indicating growing adoption.

Second, Cardano is known for its scientifically-driven approach and peer-reviewed research. This methodical approach may particularly appeal to institutional investors who value long-term stability and security.

“Cardano’s scientific approach to blockchain development creates a strong foundation for long-term sustainability,” says Charles Hoskinson, founder of Cardano. “We’re building infrastructure that will stand the test of time, and with ETF approval, we may see an influx of institutional capital that recognizes this fundamental value.”

Current Market Conditions and Outlook

Despite the generally bearish market sentiment, there are signs that Cardano may rise in value. If the triangle breaks to the upside and there is increased optimism about ETF approval, the price could experience a rapid rally.

The point where the resistance level is $0.91 is significant. If the price holds above this point, there is a chance for Cardano to reach $1.32. On the other hand, bears may continue influencing price action, as the declining ADX signals.

Cardano’s price may move significantly with new announcements about the SEC’s decision on the Cardano ETF. As institutions show growing interest in whale buying, the market may be influenced even further.

Regulators are closely watching whether ADA will maintain its positive trend during a period of mixed indicators and changing rules.

“We’re at a crucial stage for Cardano,” concludes Stankevich. “Technical and fundamental factors are converging to create potential for significant price movement. Investors should closely monitor the $0.91 level as a key trigger for a possible 75% rally to $1.32.”