Key Points:
- Goldman Sachs forecasts gold to reach $4,000 per troy ounce by mid-2026
- Analyst Daan Struyven cites gold’s limited supply and lower volatility as advantages over Bitcoin
- Current prices: gold at $3,310.74, Bitcoin at $109,000
- Bitcoin has risen 3% in the past week and 18% over the past month
- Both assets share scarcity attributes but differ in volatility and correlation profiles
- Bitcoin increasingly correlating with tech stocks, potentially limiting its effectiveness as a diversification tool
Goldman Predicts Significant Upside for Gold Through 2026
Goldman Sachs has issued a bullish forecast for gold, with the bank’s co-head of global commodities research Daan Struyven predicting the precious metal could reach $4,000 per troy ounce by mid-2026. This projection represents a potential 21% increase from current levels, with gold trading at $3,310.74 at the time of the report.
In a discussion with strategy firm Veriten, Struyven presented a compelling case for gold’s continued appreciation, highlighting fundamental factors that could drive further price growth despite already significant gains in the precious metals market.
Supply Scarcity Driving Both Assets, But Volatility Differs
Struyven emphasized that supply limitations play a crucial role in both gold and Bitcoin’s investment appeal, particularly amid inflation concerns.
“Supply is very limited. The vast majority of the available gold supply has already been mined,” Struyven explained. “And Bitcoin supply, by design, is limited, and I think this limited supply gives some confidence to investors who are worried about runaway inflation which may be caused by a potentially aggressive increase in money supply.”
However, despite acknowledging Bitcoin’s strong historical returns, the Goldman analyst identified several factors that, in his assessment, make gold a more reliable hedge:
- Lower volatility: Gold has demonstrated more price stability compared to Bitcoin’s dramatic swings
- Decorrelation benefits: Gold tends to move independently from equities during market stress
- Long-term track record: Gold’s millennia-long history as a store of value versus Bitcoin’s 15-year existence
Current Market Dynamics
The analysis comes at an interesting juncture for both assets:
- Bitcoin recently reached a record high of $111,900 before slightly retracing
- Bitcoin has risen 3% in the past week and 18% in the past month
- Gold continues its multi-year uptrend, currently at $3,310.74
Bitcoin as “Digital Gold”: Similarities and Differences
The article acknowledges Bitcoin’s growing reputation as “digital gold,” noting several characteristics the cryptocurrency shares with the precious metal:
- Scarcity: Bitcoin’s 21 million coin cap mirrors gold’s limited physical supply
- Inflation hedge potential: Both assets are positioned as hedges against currency debasement
- Store of value: Both aim to preserve purchasing power over time
However, Struyven highlighted a key concern potentially undermining Bitcoin’s effectiveness as a diversification tool:
“Bitcoin has booked higher returns than gold over the past few years, but is also more volatile and sensitive to drawdowns,” he noted. “Both Bitcoin and equities tend to do well when risk sentiment is positive.”
This observation suggests Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with technology stocks could reduce its effectiveness as a hedge during broader market downturns.
Beyond Scarcity: Bitcoin’s Technological Advantages
While the Goldman analysis favors gold as a hedge, the article acknowledges several technological advantages Bitcoin offers:
- Portability: Bitcoin can be transferred globally within minutes
- Divisibility: Can be divided into 100 million satoshis, enabling micro-transactions
- Verifiability: Blockchain provides transparent verification of ownership and transactions
- Storage efficiency: Requires no physical vault or security infrastructure
These attributes have contributed to Bitcoin’s growing institutional adoption as a modern alternative to gold in portfolio allocation strategies.
As both assets continue to attract investor attention amid economic uncertainty, the debate over their relative merits as inflation hedges and portfolio diversifiers remains active, with Goldman’s analysis providing a traditional financial institution’s perspective favoring the established precious metal over its newer digital competitor.