Technical Analysis and Whale Accumulation Point to Potential Historic Rally

Bitcoin (BTC) kicked off the month with renewed momentum, breaking above $103,000. At press time, the world’s leading cryptocurrency is trading at approximately $103,241, up just over 3.50% over the past 24 hours, according to data from CoinGecko. Meanwhile, the total crypto market capitalization rose 3.10% over the same period to $3.25 trillion. However, BTC’s dominance currently sits at a commanding 61%, indicating that altcoins have lagged. This surge has reignited bullish sentiment across the market, with popular trader and market analyst Gert Van Lagen confidently declaring that Bitcoin’s march toward $300,000 is now a question of when, not if.

Technical Analysis: Cup and Handle Pattern Signals Strong Growth Potential

According to Van Lagen, Bitcoin’s current price action mirrors a textbook “cup and handle” pattern, having broken out of both the handle structure and the neckline earlier this year. This technical pattern is widely recognized as a strong signal for continued upward momentum, especially after a prolonged period of consolidation.

“BTC to ~$300K+ isn’t a question of if, but when. The structure is screaming for it — identical to what we saw in SPX and Gold before their breakouts,” the analyst tweeted.

To understand the significance of this technical signal, it’s worth delving into the details. The cup and handle pattern consists of two key components: a U-shaped “cup,” followed by a shorter consolidation resembling a “handle.” In Bitcoin’s case, the “cup” formed from mid-2022 to late 2024, with the “handle” forming in the first quarter of 2025.

“The classic interpretation of this pattern suggests a growth potential roughly equal to the depth of the cup,” explains Maria Stankevich, an analyst from TokenMetrics. “Given that the cup’s depth in Bitcoin’s case is around $70,000, after breaking out from the handle, the target level could indeed be in the vicinity of $300,000.”

Notably, Bitcoin’s ascent also coincided with a new all-time high for gold, which surged to $3,389 per troy ounce. The rally in both assets reflects growing investor concern over macroeconomic instability, especially amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and China. This uncertain backdrop has increased demand for alternative stores of value, particularly Bitcoin and gold, as investors hedge against a weakening dollar.

Macroeconomic Factors Support the Bullish Scenario

“Bitcoin’s breakout above $87,000 is driven by rising global liquidity, fueled by expanding money supply and renewed institutional interest,” explained Dominic John, analyst at Kronos Research.

Several macroeconomic factors are converging to create the perfect environment for continued Bitcoin growth:

1. US-China Tensions: Ongoing trade disputes and geopolitical rivalry are creating instability in global markets, pushing investors toward safe-haven assets.
2. Inflation Concerns: Despite central bank statements about controlling inflation, many institutional investors worry about the long-term consequences of unprecedented stimulus in recent years.
3. De-dollarization: Efforts by several countries to reduce dependence on the US dollar in international trade indirectly support interest in alternative reserve assets.
4. Institutional Adoption: The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2025 continues to attract new capital, creating persistent buying pressure.

“We’re witnessing a perfect storm of factors supporting Bitcoin’s rise,” comments Alexei Kirienko, managing partner at EXANTE. “ETF inflows remain stable, global uncertainty is increasing, and Bitcoin’s supply has decreased after the halving. This is a classic case of limited supply with growing demand.”

On-chain Data Confirms Accumulation by Large Holders

Data from Glassnode reveals a sharp uptick in accumulation by large holders. Notably, whales holding over 10,000 BTC are maintaining a strong accumulation trend, with an accumulation score near 0.7. Additionally, the number of wallets holding over 1,000 BTC has climbed to a four-month high of 2,107, levels last seen during the Trump election rally in late 2024, while smaller holders appear to be exiting the market.

“Whales are accumulating huge amounts of bitcoin. They know what’s coming next,” said crypto trader Mister Crypto.

On-chain analytics from Santiment also shows that addresses holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC now control 67.77% of the circulating supply, adding over 53,000 BTC in April alone.

“The behavior of large holders is often a leading indicator for the market,” explains Dmitry Volkov, Research Director at Stack Funds. “The latest data paints a vivid picture: while retail investors are taking profits, institutional players and whales continue to accumulate aggressively. This is creating a supply shortage that could intensify in the coming months.”

Particularly interesting is that the current accumulation pattern resembles the situation in late 2020, just before the historic 2021 bull run. However, this time the accumulation is happening on a significantly larger scale and with more institutional participants.

Historical Parallels: Why $300,000 Could Be a Realistic Target

To assess the realism of the $300,000 forecast, it’s helpful to consider historical parallels and previous Bitcoin cycles:

• In the 2013 cycle, Bitcoin grew approximately 100x from trough to peak.
• In the 2017 cycle, the growth was about 30x from trough to peak.
• In the 2020-2021 cycle, Bitcoin showed growth of roughly 20x.

“If we consider the minimum of this cycle around $15,500 in November 2022, then a 20x growth would give a target level of about $310,000,” notes Stankevich. “Of course, with each cycle, the percentage growth decreases due to increasing market capitalization, but even a 15x increase from the minimum would lead to a target in the range of $230,000-250,000.”

Additional support for the optimistic forecast comes from analysis of Bitcoin’s logarithmic chart, which shows remarkably consistent long-term growth channels. When projecting these channels into the future, the range of $250,000-350,000 appears quite achievable within the current cycle.

Potential Risks: What Could Prevent Bitcoin from Reaching $300,000

Despite impressive technical and on-chain signals, there are significant risks that could prevent Bitcoin from reaching the projected $300,000 mark:

1. Regulatory Pressure: Tightening cryptocurrency regulations, especially in key jurisdictions, could temporarily halt institutional adoption.
2. Macroeconomic Shock: A global recession or liquidity crisis could lead to a mass exodus from risk assets, including Bitcoin.
3. Technical Vulnerabilities: Although the probability is low, the discovery of critical vulnerabilities in the Bitcoin protocol or related infrastructure could undermine confidence.
4. Weakening Purchasing Power: If inflows through ETFs significantly slow down or reverse, this could substantially reduce buying pressure.

“It’s important to maintain healthy skepticism,” warns Victor Pergamenschikov, an analyst from TradingView. “While technical and fundamental factors are indeed bullish, the market rarely moves in a straight line. We’re likely to see several significant corrections on the way to new highs.”

Key Levels to Watch

For investors and traders monitoring Bitcoin’s potential movement toward $300,000, experts recommend paying attention to the following key levels:

• $120,000: Breaking through this psychological barrier will open the path to the next significant target.
• $150,000: This level is likely to cause significant resistance and media attention.
• $180,000-200,000: A zone where substantial profit-taking may occur before the final push.

“Bitcoin never moves linearly,” notes Kirienko. “The most likely scenario is a series of upward surges followed by periods of consolidation. Each new psychological barrier, such as $150,000 or $200,000, will cause temporary resistance before a breakthrough occurs.”

Conclusion: Timeline for Potential Ascent to $300,000

In summary, Gert Van Lagen’s prediction of Bitcoin’s movement toward $300,000 has substantial technical, fundamental, and historical foundations. The combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, institutional accumulation, and reduced supply after the halving creates a favorable environment for the continuation of the bullish trend.

Regarding timeframes, most analysts agree that such a movement, if it occurs, would most likely develop over the next 12-18 months, with a potential peak in late 2026 or early 2027, which aligns with historical patterns of previous Bitcoin cycles.

“Historically, the peak of each Bitcoin cycle has occurred approximately 12-18 months after the halving,” concludes Stankevich. “Given that the last halving occurred in April 2024, it’s logical to assume that a new maximum, if it reaches the predicted levels, could be established between late 2025 and mid-2026.”

Thus, as Van Lagen stated, the question now is not whether Bitcoin will reach $300,000, but when it will happen. As geopolitical tensions rise and institutional accumulation intensifies, the road to $300,000 is beginning to look less speculative and more inevitable.