Stable Reserves Signal Confidence in Continued Market Growth
Despite macroeconomic uncertainty and a 32% drop from Bitcoin’s all-time high in 2024, miners of the first cryptocurrency are not showing significant signs of capitulation. According to data from Bitfinex Alpha’s analytical report, miners’ on-chain activity continues to signal bullish sentiment. As of May 5, miner reserves stand at 1,808,674 BTC, showing virtually no change since December 2024, indicating a cautious holding strategy and refraining from significant selling. This stability in reserves and low selling pressure reinforce the idea that miners remain confident in Bitcoin’s potential for further gains.
Miner Reserve Stability as an Indicator of Market Confidence
Miner behavior is traditionally viewed as an important indicator of sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. As direct producers of new coins, miners are often the first to react to changing market conditions, adjusting their selling strategies based on expected price dynamics.
In their report, Bitfinex Alpha analysts emphasize: “Given that miners typically need to liquidate a portion of their holdings to finance operational expenses — such as electricity, maintenance, and salaries — their continued restraint from selling speaks volumes about expectations of future price appreciation.”
Particularly telling is the fact that miners continue to hold their positions even after a 32% recovery from April lows. This supports the idea that, despite recent volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty, “we may not have seen the final leg of the current bull cycle.”
“Miner behavior in this cycle is notably different from previous ones,” comments Dmitry Volkov, cryptocurrency market analyst from CryptoQuant. “While in past cycles we observed mass capitulation during significant market corrections, now we’re seeing more mature and strategic behavior. Miners have learned to manage their balances and avoid panic even during substantial drawdowns.”
The stability of reserves is especially remarkable against the backdrop of recent changes in electricity tariffs and increased competition for computing power following the halving that occurred in April 2024. Despite the reduced block reward, large mining companies are refraining from liquidating their Bitcoin reserves, indicating their long-term confidence in price prospects.
Puell Multiple and Other Metrics Confirm Absence of Selling Pressure
Beyond reserve data, Bitfinex analysts point to an important indicator—the Puell Multiple, which measures the ratio between the daily Bitcoin issuance in dollar terms and the average value of this indicator over the past 365 days. This multiplier is a key indicator of mining profitability and has historically been used to identify periods of excessive profitability when miners are prone to selling.
According to the report, the Puell Multiple remains well below historically elevated thresholds, further confirming miners’ lack of incentive to sell. Typically, values above 2 signal an increase in selling activity, but the current level of the Puell Multiple suggests that large-scale miner selling is unlikely.
“The Puell Multiple is not the only indicator showing a healthy situation in the mining sector,” explains Elena Sokolova, researcher from Blockchain Research Lab. “We’re also observing historically low values in the Miner’s Capitulation Index, which combines data on hashrate, difficulty, and price dynamics. All these metrics indicate that miners are not currently under strong economic pressure forcing them to sell off reserves.”
An additional factor supporting miners’ ability to hold positions has been the development of alternative revenue sources, including participation in energy load balancing programs and the ability to sell excess heat. These innovative approaches help mining companies reduce operational expenses and decrease dependence on immediate sales of mined coins.
Strategic Implications for the Market and Long-term Prospects
Stable reserves and low selling pressure from miners have important strategic implications for the entire cryptocurrency market. The absence of capitulation in this segment reduces the risk of sudden price shocks associated with massive sales of large volumes of Bitcoin.
“Miners have historically been a significant source of selling pressure on the market,” notes Mark Johnson, senior analyst from Digital Asset Research. “In previous cycles, we’ve seen how forced miner sales amplified downward price movements. The current restraint from selling can be viewed as a buffer protecting the market from excessive volatility during correction periods.”
Despite the optimistic signals, experts warn of persistent risks related to the global macroeconomic situation. Uncertainty regarding the monetary policy of leading central banks, geopolitical tensions, and potential regulatory changes can significantly impact the cryptocurrency market, regardless of miners’ current strategy.
“While miner behavior indeed gives grounds for optimism, it’s important to understand that this is just one of many factors influencing Bitcoin’s price dynamics,” cautions Alexander Petrov, head of research at crypto investment firm Blockchain Capital. “Institutional flows, macroeconomic events, and changes in the regulatory environment can outweigh the influence of mining activity in the short term.”
Nevertheless, Bitfinex analysts conclude that structural signals continue to point to the potential for further growth in the current cycle. Although the market remains susceptible to short-term fluctuations, miners’ resilient behavior creates a foundation for stability in the medium term.
“Looking at historical patterns, the period between halving and the peak of a bull market typically ranges from 12 to 18 months,” Sokolova reminds. “Considering that the last halving occurred in April 2024, and miners continue to hold their reserves, there’s reason to believe that the market has not yet realized its full growth potential in the current cycle.”
Thus, miners’ restrained behavior amid market volatility can be viewed as one of the fundamental indicators supporting the long-term bullish thesis for Bitcoin, despite short-term fluctuations and corrections.