What Does This Mean for the Future Price?
Cryptocurrency analytics firm Alphractal has reported that selling pressure from Bitcoin miners has decreased to its lowest level since May 2024. According to historical data, such reductions rarely lead to positive price effects and more frequently precede periods of sideways consolidation or price declines. Experts note similarities between current patterns and the situation in April 2021, raising questions about a possible repeat of the downward scenario observed after the previous peak.
Historical Implications of Low Selling Pressure
According to Alphractal’s research, decreased selling pressure from miners is a phenomenon that requires careful historical analysis. The company emphasizes that low selling pressure rarely leads to positive price movements in the short term. Throughout Bitcoin’s history, positive reactions following such periods have been observed in only a few instances:
- December 2012
- September 2013
- A few months in 2016
- July 2021
“In most historical examples, low selling pressure from miners has led either to sideways price movement or decline,” Alphractal’s report notes. “This may seem counterintuitive, as one might logically assume that fewer sales should reduce supply and support the price, but historical data shows a different pattern.”
Experts explain this phenomenon by noting that low selling pressure often coincides with periods when miners have already liquidated a significant portion of their reserves at previous price peaks, or when they face operational difficulties forcing them to hold coins while awaiting more favorable selling conditions.
Current Situation and Parallels with 2021
Analysts are particularly concerned about similarities between the current situation and events in April 2021. In April 2025, the hash rate (network computing power) reached an all-time high, followed by a decline and recent slight recovery. This dynamic resembles the events of April 2021, which marked a local peak in Bitcoin’s price.
“April has traditionally been a critical period for Bitcoin mining,” Alphractal emphasizes. “The dates April 14, 2021, and April 14, 2023, stand out as local peaks for Bitcoin, and the current situation raises the question of whether we have entered a similar weakening phase as in 2021.”
Experts note that although no price peak has been observed in 2025 so far, the recent hash rate decline may signal the beginning of a similar weakening phase. This is particularly notable in the context of the record hash rate levels reported earlier and the subsequent correction.
“Miners often serve as early indicators of market trends,” explains financial analyst Mark Rivera, who specializes in cryptocurrency markets. “Their behavior reflects both current profitability realities and expectations regarding future price movements.”
Influencing Factors and Development Scenarios
The Alphractal report indicates that the current low selling pressure from miners may result from “wise” sales in early 2025, when prices were at higher levels. Miners who liquidated part of their reserves earlier may now be in a wait-and-see position.
However, analysts warn that if a capitulation process begins in the mining sector, a new wave of selling pressure may emerge. Miner capitulation typically occurs when operational mining expenses exceed revenues for an extended period, forcing less efficient market participants to shut down their equipment and sell off cryptocurrency reserves to cover expenses.
To assess the likelihood of such a scenario, Alphractal recommends monitoring the following key factors:
- BTC price movements
- Hash rate trends
- Mining difficulty
- Performance of publicly traded mining companies
“The hash rate decline after reaching an all-time high may indicate that some miners are already under pressure,” the report notes. “If this pressure intensifies, we may see a classic miner capitulation scenario, which has historically led to significant price volatility.”
Expert Opinions and Long-Term Perspectives
Experts’ opinions on the long-term implications of the current situation are divided. Some analysts point to fundamental differences between the current cycle and previous ones, particularly the increased institutional involvement and more mature market infrastructure.
“While historical patterns provide valuable guidance, each cycle has its unique characteristics,” comments Sarah Chen, a cryptocurrency market researcher. “Today’s mining industry is much more professionalized and has access to diverse financial instruments for hedging risks, which may mitigate traditional capitulation cycles.”
Other experts emphasize that despite market evolution, the fundamental economic principles of mining remain unchanged, and periods of low profitability inevitably lead to industry consolidation.
“Bitcoin mining is primarily a business driven by the relationship between revenue and expenses,” notes Alex Dobrev, founder of a crypto mining consulting firm. “When this relationship deteriorates, we observe the departure of less efficient players and the redistribution of hash rate in favor of more sustainable operators.”
In light of these conflicting factors, the current reduction in selling pressure from Bitcoin miners represents an important indicator for the market, requiring careful monitoring in the coming weeks. History shows that such periods often precede significant market changes, although the exact direction of these changes is difficult to predict.
Investors and analysts are advised to track not only the immediate behavior of miners but also a broader set of factors, including institutional flows, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic trends, which collectively will determine the future dynamics of the Bitcoin market.