Expert Points to Inconsistency with Budget Crisis and Political Realities
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, has expressed skepticism about the prospects for active expansion of the US Bitcoin reserve established by President Donald Trump in March 2025. In an interview with crypto expert Kyle Chase, he emphasized that economic realities and the political landscape make it unlikely that the US government will invest significant funds in acquiring the first cryptocurrency. According to Hayes, the crypto community’s fantasies about large-scale government accumulation of Bitcoin diverge from the objective reality of the US budget deficit and the priorities of American politicians.
Budget Deficit Versus Digital Reserves
In his interview, Hayes drew special attention to the fundamental contradiction between the idea of actively replenishing the Bitcoin reserve and the economic situation in the United States, characterized by a chronic budget deficit.
“The US is a deficit country. The only way it can create such a reserve is by not selling already confiscated assets. Okay, fine. You have these 200,000 BTC. But I can’t imagine a popular politician who would seriously promote the idea of issuing funds to invest in Bitcoin. Especially with the current image of this community,” Hayes stated.
President Trump established the Bitcoin reserve by executive order on March 6, 2025, but it was initially assumed that it would be formed exclusively from confiscated crypto assets. The possibility of additional acquisitions is contingent on the development of “budget-neutral ways” of replenishment, which in itself indicates the administration’s cautious approach to this issue.
Financial analysts note that the US budget deficit in 2025 could exceed $2 trillion, creating serious constraints for any initiatives requiring additional government spending. In such conditions, allocating funds for the acquisition of digital assets does indeed appear to be a politically difficult task.
“With growing government debt and inflationary pressures, the Trump administration is likely to focus on traditional economic stimuli and protecting the dollar, rather than experimenting with cryptocurrency reserves,” comments James Rivera, senior analyst at the Economic Policy Institute.
Alternative Models and Political Reality
Hayes compared approaches with other countries that could theoretically more effectively form Bitcoin reserves. He cited China and the United Arab Emirates as examples.
“You can print money to ‘hand out checks’ because that promises votes in elections. But I don’t see a way to form this reserve as fantasized about in the community. The narrative that the US can print trillions of dollars and buy crypto assets doesn’t work—why? What’s the purpose of this? It won’t bring votes in elections,” the expert emphasized.
In his opinion, China could use state resources to mine the first cryptocurrency, while the UAE could convert carbon credits into Bitcoin investments. These countries have different economic structures and political systems, allowing them to make more flexible decisions regarding digital assets.
In the United States, however, any decisions about government investments are closely tied to electoral cycles and public opinion. In a country where a significant portion of the population and political establishment still regards cryptocurrencies with suspicion, large-scale government investments in Bitcoin may be perceived as a risky and incomprehensible decision.
“The Bitcoin community, despite its growing influence, remains a relatively small group of voters compared to traditional economic interest blocs. Politicians tend to make decisions oriented toward broader groups of voters,” notes Maria Kowalski, political analyst and consultant at the Washington Center for Economic Research.
Geopolitical Context and the Future of the Cryptocurrency Market
Discussing the broader geopolitical context, Hayes expressed skepticism about the possibility of improved relations between the US and China. In his view, hopes for reaching comprehensive agreements between the world’s two largest economies are unfounded.
“People live with vain hope for an agreement between the parties in the future. He, in turn, does not believe in this. According to Hayes, the world market will eventually form two major camps—Chinese and American,” the report states.
This view echoes the predictions of billionaire and Bridgewater Associates hedge fund founder Ray Dalio, who predicted the collapse of the traditional monetary order and the formation of a new multipolar financial system.
In the context of the continuing fragmentation of the global economy, Hayes predicts an increase in the popularity of “proxy solutions” for access to Bitcoin among public companies. These instruments will allow institutional investors to gain exposure to the first cryptocurrency through regulated financial products without directly owning the asset.
“We are observing only the beginning of Bitcoin’s integration into the traditional financial system. Despite government restraint, the private sector will continue to seek ways to participate in this market,” Hayes explained.
In addition, the expert predicted a significant strengthening of Bitcoin’s dominance in the cryptocurrency market—to a level of more than 70%. This may indicate his conviction that in conditions of global economic uncertainty, investors will prefer the most established and liquid digital assets.
Thus, although Hayes is skeptical about the prospects for active government accumulation of Bitcoin in the United States, he remains optimistic about the long-term growth and institutionalization of the first cryptocurrency. In conditions of growing geopolitical tension and economic instability, Bitcoin may continue to strengthen its position as an alternative asset class, even without direct government support from the United States.