Settlement of SEC Lawsuit Could Catalyze Institutional Adoption and Altcoin Rally
Despite today’s 5% drop in XRP price to $2.48 amid a broader cryptocurrency market correction, the altcoin maintains impressive growth of 12.5% over the week and 15% over the month. A key factor supporting bullish sentiment around Ripple’s token is the SEC’s recent court filing requesting approval of a settlement agreement, which could finally end the years-long legal battle. Experts and analysts view this event as a potential catalyst for the approval of several XRP ETF applications, which in turn could lead to significant price growth, with targets ranging from $4 to an ambitious $10 by the end of 2025.
Key Moments in the Conclusion of the Ripple vs SEC Legal Process
Last week, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a settlement agreement letter, requesting that Judge Analisa Torres grant the wishes of both parties to suspend their respective appeals and close the case once and for all. As noted by lawyer James K. Filan on X, of particular interest is the fact that the SEC is asking to keep only $50 million of the original $125 million settlement, with the rest returning to Ripple (the regulator had initially pushed for a $2 billion penalty).
“The significant reduction in the penalty amount from $2 billion to $50 million can be viewed as a major retreat by the SEC and a sign that the regulator is eager to conclude this case more quickly,” comments Alexei Petrov, a lawyer specializing in cryptocurrency regulation. “Such concession from the commission may indicate an awareness of the weakness of its position and a desire to avoid further legal precedents that could limit its regulatory powers regarding other cryptocurrencies.”
The end of the case could therefore arrive soon enough to have a bearing on next week’s intermediate deadlines for several XRP ETF applications, including filings from Bitwise, 21Shares, Canary Funds, WisdomTree, and Grayscale.
Potential Impact of XRP ETF Approval on Price
But regardless of whether we have to wait until next week or October (when the final deadlines fall), the arrival of spot ETFs will be incredibly bullish for the XRP price. Indeed, the sheer number of outstanding applications – ten (more than for any other altcoin) – indicate strong institutional demand for the altcoin.
“ETFs based on XRP could attract significant institutional capital that previously had no opportunity to invest in this asset due to regulatory uncertainty and storage complexities,” explains Maria Sokolova, cryptocurrency market analyst at investment fund “DigitalHorizon Capital.” “The experience of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs has shown that institutional adoption through regulated investment products can lead to substantial liquidity inflow and asset revaluation.”
Historically, we can observe parallels with the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, which was accompanied by significant growth in the price of the main cryptocurrency. After the approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2025, BTC price increased by more than 50% over the next three months. A similar effect can be expected for XRP, especially given its greater volatility compared to Bitcoin.
Technical Analysis and Whale Activity Point to a Bullish Trend
And if we look at XRP’s chart today, we see that the token may have entered a more bullish phase, after a very difficult period in February and March (and early April). After languishing below 50 during pretty much the entirety of this period, XRP’s relative strength index (RSI) has risen close to 70 in the past few days.
It also seems that whales are getting ready for gains in the near future, with one large trader moving over $73 million in XRP a few hours ago.
“Movements of large holders often precede significant price movements,” notes Dmitry Volkov, trader and specialist in technical analysis of cryptocurrencies. “The movement of $73 million in XRP may indicate positioning before expected news or a major market movement. It’s especially telling that this is happening shortly before the potential decision by Judge Torres and the consideration of ETF applications.”
Potential Price Levels and Forecasts
Based on factors such as the resolution of the court case, potential ETF approval, technical indicators, and large player activity, several scenarios for XRP price movement can be considered:
Conservative Scenario:
- $3 by the end of June
- $4 by Q4 2025
Optimistic Scenario:
- $3.5-4 by the end of June
- $5-6 by Q3 2025
- $8-10 by Q4 2025
“Reaching the $10 level by the end of the year appears ambitious but not impossible,” believes Nikolai Ivanov, head of the analytical department at crypto exchange “CryptoTrade.” “It would require a combination of several factors: a positive decision by Judge Torres, quick approval of multiple ETFs, strong institutional capital inflow, and a general bullish trend in the cryptocurrency market. While the probability of such a scenario is not very high, XRP has historically demonstrated the ability for exponential growth in short periods of time.”
Risk Factors and Potential Obstacles
Despite promising prospects, there are several factors that could hinder the realization of the bullish scenario for XRP:
- Uncertainty in the judicial decision — although both parties are requesting settlement, Judge Torres could issue a ruling that does not fully meet market expectations.
- Delays in ETF approval — the SEC may extend the review periods for ETF applications or impose additional requirements on issuers.
- General market conditions — the global macroeconomic situation and general sentiment in the cryptocurrency market can have a substantial impact regardless of XRP-specific news.
- Technical limitations of the Ripple network — in case of a sharp increase in interest in XRP, the network may face scaling or liquidity problems.
“Investors should remember that even positive fundamental factors do not guarantee an immediate price increase,” warns Elena Markova, an independent financial consultant. “The cryptocurrency market remains extremely volatile and susceptible to manipulation. The historical correlation between news and price movements is not always linear, and there’s often a ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ effect.”
Long-term Prospects of XRP as a Payment Asset
Beyond short-term speculation, it’s important to consider the fundamental value of XRP as a payment instrument. The resolution of the SEC lawsuit and potential ETF approval could significantly strengthen Ripple’s position in the financial industry and contribute to wider adoption of the technology.
“XRP was designed to facilitate cross-border payments, and this functionality remains its main advantage,” explains Andrei Sokolov, an expert in international payment systems. “Resolving legal issues with the SEC opens the way for wider adoption of Ripple Net among financial institutions, especially in jurisdictions that were previously cautious due to regulatory risks in the US.”
As banks and financial institutions continue to seek ways to improve the efficiency of international transfers, Ripple technology and the XRP token could occupy a significant niche in this sector. This could create sustainable demand for XRP, regardless of speculative fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market.
Conclusion: Decisive Months Ahead for XRP
The coming weeks and months could be decisive for XRP and its holders. Judge Torres’ decision on the SEC settlement and the subsequent review of ETF applications represent potential catalysts that could significantly influence the price trajectory of this altcoin.
While price predictions are always associated with uncertainty, the combination of the conclusion of the legal process, institutional interest expressed in numerous ETF applications, and technical indicators create favorable ground for positive XRP movement in the near and medium term.
Conservative estimates suggest reaching $3-4 by the end of the year, while more optimistic scenarios consider the possibility of growth to $8-10 if all positive factors materialize. Investors are advised to closely monitor developments around Judge Torres’ decision and the ETF approval process, while considering general market conditions and managing risks accordingly.