Signals and Whale Activity Point to Significant Growth Potential

Dogecoin (DOGE/USD) continues its rally, demonstrating another 4% growth, prompting traders and analysts to make bold predictions about potentially reaching the $1 mark by year-end. Technical indicators show favorable signals, while data on increased activity from large holders (so-called “whales”) and growing open interest in derivatives markets add additional confidence to supporters of the bullish scenario for the popular memecoin.

Analysts See Path to $1 Amid Technical Signals

Trader Tardigrade expects DOGE to soon hit his diamond bottom target of $0.29, while macro investor Raoul Pal took to X on May 11 to muse about the intriguing possibility of Dogecoin becoming the “hardest currency” in the world.

He cited the DOGE/BTC chart, which he believes is forming a large bull flag—a pattern that typically precedes significant upward price movements.

“I still think the most amusing outcome possible would be for $DOGE to be the hardest currency on earth… this is the DOGE/BTC chart…to me it looks like a potential big flag pattern and new highs await…” Pal wrote in his post.

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Kevin made a compelling technical case for Dogecoin hitting $1 by year-end in his May 11 podcast.

“Unlike many other memecoins, Dogecoin has almost a decade of market cycles history, which allows for applying classical technical analysis to it with a greater degree of reliability,” notes Igor Maximov, head of the analytical department at cryptocurrency exchange BitMarket. “Technical formations on the DOGE chart are indeed currently showing signs of potential continuation of the uptrend.”

Kevin points out that in previous bull cycles, Dogecoin’s monthly RSI reached at least 89.4, a level not yet hit in the current run. DOGE previously touched $0.50 when RSI was just 75, suggesting significant room for continued growth.

The analyst also referenced the Pi Cycle MA, a metric that accurately signaled DOGE tops in 2017 and early 2021. Currently, the indicator shows no signs of an imminent peak. He estimates DOGE needs to hit $0.40–$0.41 before it even starts flashing overbought conditions.

“First price target is going to be getting back to that 48-cent level, then it’ll be getting to previous all-time highs at 73-74 cents,” he advised, while cautioning against holding altcoins long-term regardless of price action.

Whales Actively Accumulating DOGE, Open Interest Rising

Adding to the positive momentum, crypto analyst Ali Martinez, in an X post on May 11, reported that DOGE whales scooped up 600 million DOGE in just the past two days.

“Accumulation by large holders is usually a precursor to significant price movements, as these players have access to deep market understanding and substantial capital,” explains Elena Vasilyeva, cryptocurrency strategist at investment firm BlockVenture. “What we’re seeing now with Dogecoin resembles accumulation patterns that preceded the historic 2021 rally.”

According to Coinglass, Dogecoin open interest surged 11.3% to $3.16 billion, the highest level since February. Liquidations in the past 24 hours reached $20 million, split between $10.6 million in shorts and the rest in longs, reflecting how rapidly sentiment and positioning are shifting among market participants.

These data indicate a significant increase in activity in DOGE derivatives markets, which often precedes periods of increased volatility and directional price movements.

Macroeconomic Factors Favor Altcoins

Kevin added that a shift toward easing monetary policy, including rate cuts and the end of quantitative tightening, tends to benefit altcoins, especially as Bitcoin dominance starts to wane.

Historically, periods of expansive monetary policy have facilitated capital inflow into riskier assets, which include altcoins in general and memecoins in particular. Given the expected changes in the policy of the US Federal Reserve and other central banks, the macroeconomic background may create favorable conditions for Dogecoin growth.

“The correlation between monetary policy easing and altcoin growth is well-documented in previous market cycles,” notes Dmitry Korolev, economist and cryptocurrency market researcher. “If central banks do indeed transition to a rate-cutting cycle in the coming months, this could create a powerful tailwind for assets like Dogecoin.”

Challenges and Risks on the Path to $1

Despite optimistic forecasts and technical signals, reaching the $1 mark represents a significant challenge for Dogecoin. At the current price of around $0.24, achieving this goal would require growth of more than 300%, which would push DOGE’s market capitalization well beyond $100 billion.

Such a level of market capitalization would place DOGE on par with the largest crypto assets and would require a significant influx of new capital. Additionally, the historical maximum of just over $0.73 may represent a strong level of psychological resistance that needs to be overcome before considering higher targets.

Investors should also consider Kevin’s warning about long-term holding of altcoins. Unlike Bitcoin, which many view as a long-term store of value, memecoins, including Dogecoin, have historically demonstrated significant volatility and may experience sharp corrections after periods of rapid growth.

Conclusion: Technical and Fundamental Factors Converge

The combination of technical signals, whale activity, and favorable macroeconomic conditions creates an intriguing scenario for Dogecoin. With no clear signs of overbought conditions on key indicators and continued accumulation by large holders, the potential for further growth remains in the short term.

Reaching $1 by year-end represents an ambitious but not impossible goal, especially in the context of the historical volatility of cryptocurrency markets and the ability of memecoins to grow exponentially during bull cycles. However, investors are advised to exercise caution, carefully manage risks, and consider both the growth potential and the possibility of significant corrections characteristic of this asset class.

As Kevin notes, the approaching price targets include the levels of $0.48 and then $0.73-0.74, which may serve as key milestones on the potential path to the coveted $1 mark.