U.S. Surpasses China in BTC Holdings, But Analysts Warn of Potential Correction
Bitcoin crossed a historic milestone, briefly touching $111,980, and there’s a new force driving this rally — U.S. institutional power. From Wall Street giants to crypto-savvy politicians, the United States is taking center stage in Bitcoin’s latest bull run. The U.S. now holds more Bitcoin (207,189 BTC worth $22.99 billion) than China (194,000 BTC worth $21.53 billion), marking a shift in the global balance of power. However, CryptoQuant analysts warn that previous “golden crosses” have been followed by sharp corrections, urging caution despite current optimism.
U.S. Strengthens Position as Largest Bitcoin Holder
Recent data from the on-chain analytical platform CryptoQuant shows that U.S.-based entities, including banks, exchanges, and funds, are now holding a bigger chunk of Bitcoin than the rest of the world. This strong buying activity recently triggered a bullish chart pattern known as a golden cross on the U.S. to Rest Reserve Ratio chart, which often signals a potential price surge.
“A golden cross occurs when a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average, which is technically interpreted as a strong bullish signal,” explains Michaël van de Poppe, a well-known crypto analyst. “In the case of the U.S. to rest reserves ratio, this means the U.S. is accelerating Bitcoin accumulation compared to other regions.”
In the past, this type of signal marked the beginning of major uptrends. We saw it last year, and now it’s happening again. This shift is helping fuel the recent price jump, along with optimism over new U.S. crypto laws and growing interest from major names like Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy, Tesla, Semler Scientific, and many more.
The U.S. currently holds overall 207,189 BTC worth around $22.99 billion, representing a significant increase from previous periods and reflecting an aggressive accumulation strategy by American institutions.
Political Winds Are Blowing Bitcoin’s Way
There’s also growing political support for crypto in the U.S. President Donald Trump recently voiced strong support for crypto, even saying he wants the U.S. to lead Bitcoin mining and become the “crypto capital of the world.”
“This is a fundamental shift in the U.S. government’s approach to cryptocurrencies,” notes David Sacks, Trump’s crypto advisor. “We’re moving from regulatory uncertainty to active support and creating a favorable environment for crypto innovation.”
Combined with new Senate talks around stablecoin laws, the U.S. is pushing hard to attract crypto innovation. The recent advancement of the GENIUS Act and other legislative initiatives are creating regulatory certainty that the industry has long lacked.
This political support manifests not only in words but in concrete actions. The creation of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, discussions about including Bitcoin in the country’s foreign exchange reserves, and the appointment of pro-crypto individuals to key regulatory positions all create a foundation for long-term growth in the American crypto sector.
Technical Analysis: Bullish Momentum with Warnings
While things look good now, CryptoQuant’s chart also highlights what could come next. The last two times this ratio formed a “death cross,” when the short-term trend drops below the long-term, Bitcoin took a hit shortly after.
“History shows that golden crosses do often precede significant upward price movements, but it’s important to remember they are not a guarantee,” warns Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant. “Our analysis shows that after such signals, a period of increased volatility follows, and investors should be prepared for possible corrections.”
Historical data shows that after golden crosses, Bitcoin indeed demonstrated impressive growth — sometimes 200-300% over several months. However, these same periods were often accompanied by corrections in the 30-50% range, which tested investors’ psychological resilience.
“The current situation reminds us of late 2020, when similar signals preceded the rise from $20,000 to $69,000,” analyzes Glassnode, another well-known analytical platform. “But we can’t forget that this was followed by a correction to $15,500 in 2022.”
China Remains a Serious Player Despite Restrictions
Even though the U.S. is leading the race, China quietly remains one of the biggest holders and miners of Bitcoin through indirect channels. While much of the trading is hidden or rerouted, China’s grip on mining and holding power is real, and the U.S. doesn’t want to be left behind.
China currently holds overall 194,000 BTC, worth around $21.53 billion. While this figure is lower than U.S. holdings, it’s important to understand that Chinese participation may be significantly underestimated due to the use of offshore structures and proxy organizations.
“China remains the ‘gray cardinal’ of the Bitcoin ecosystem,” notes Lex Moskovski, founder of Moskovski Capital. “Despite official bans, Chinese miners and investors continue to play a significant role through complex structures and overseas operations. The competition between the U.S. and China for Bitcoin control is not just an economic contest but an element of broader geopolitical confrontation.”
Geopolitical Dimension of Bitcoin Accumulation
The competition between the U.S. and China for Bitcoin control reflects broader geopolitical trends. Both countries understand the strategic importance of dominating the new digital economy.
“We’re witnessing the beginning of a new form of geopolitical competition — the struggle for control over decentralized digital assets,” explains Dr. Elena Masters, professor of international finance at Wharton School. “The country that manages to accumulate the largest Bitcoin reserves and create the most favorable ecosystem for crypto innovation will gain significant advantages in the future global financial architecture.”
This competition manifests not only in accumulation but also in infrastructure development, talent attraction, and regulatory framework creation. The U.S. is actively working to attract crypto companies and entrepreneurs, while China, despite public restrictions, continues to develop its own digital currency projects.
Cautions and Outlook
While the current dynamics look extremely positive for Bitcoin, investors should remember historical patterns and risks. The sharp rise to $111,980 may be just the beginning of a more significant movement, but it could also signal the approach of a period of consolidation or correction.
“Golden crosses are powerful signals, but they don’t cancel fundamental market cycles,” warns Willy Woo, creator of popular Bitcoin metrics. “Investors should prepare for increased volatility and possible tests of psychological support levels in the coming months.”
Nevertheless, long-term prospects remain positive. Continuing institutionalization, political support, and geopolitical competition create powerful structural factors for Bitcoin growth. The question is not whether Bitcoin will continue to grow in the long term, but how volatile this path will be.
“We’re observing a fundamental transformation in Bitcoin perception — from a speculative asset to a strategic reserve,” concludes Masters. “This shift is irreversible, but its realization may be accompanied by significant short-term fluctuations.”
As the situation develops, investors should balance optimism about long-term prospects with caution regarding short-term risks, especially considering historical warnings about corrections following technical breakthroughs.