Key Points:
- Analyst “Wise Advice” predicts Bitcoin will reach $135K by July 2025
- Bitcoin price movements track US M2 money supply with a 10-12 week lag
- Recent 2.7% increase in M2 (from $107.5T to $110.72T) suggests 24% BTC growth
- Bitcoin currently trading at $109,031, up 16% in the last 30 days
- Potential Bitcoin surge could trigger broader altcoin rally
M2 Money Supply Correlation Points to New Bitcoin Peak
A new research-based analysis suggests Bitcoin could surge to $135,000 by July 2025, representing a 24% increase from current levels. This prediction is based on Bitcoin’s historical correlation with the United States M2 money supply, which has proven to be a reliable indicator for cryptocurrency price movements.
The analysis, published by crypto market analyst Wise Advice, demonstrates how Bitcoin typically mirrors changes in the M2 money supply with a 10-12 week lag. The M2 metric encompasses physical currency, checking deposits, saving accounts, and money market funds—essentially measuring the total money circulating in the financial system.
Understanding the Bitcoin-M2 Relationship
When the M2 money supply expands, it signals increased liquidity in the financial system. This additional liquidity often flows into risk assets, with Bitcoin increasingly functioning as a significant destination for capital during periods of monetary expansion.
Recent data shows the M2 money supply has increased by 2.7%, rising from $107.5 trillion to $110.72 trillion. Following the established pattern, this expansion should translate to significant Bitcoin price appreciation approximately three months later.
The analyst explains that when M2 increases, it creates more money in the system that can potentially flow into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Conversely, when M2 contracts, there’s less liquidity available, which can lead to price decreases.
Historical Pattern Validation
The research highlights several recent examples that validate this correlation:
| M2 Movement | Date | Bitcoin Response | Date | Lag Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peak | October 2024 | Peak at $109K | January 20, 2025 | ~90 days |
| Drop | January 2025 | Drop to $74K | April 7, 2025 | ~90 days |
These instances demonstrate the consistent pattern of Bitcoin’s price movements following M2 fluctuations with approximately a 10-12 week delay.
Price Prediction and Market Implications
Based on the current M2 trend and historical correlation patterns, Wise Advice forecasts Bitcoin could reach $135,000 by July 2025. This would represent a 24% increase from its current level of approximately $109,031.
Bitcoin has already shown strong momentum, gaining 16% over the past 30 days and 3.3% in the last week alone. If the projected price target is reached, it could catalyze a broader cryptocurrency market rally, with altcoins potentially experiencing significant appreciation as well.
This pattern-based prediction offers investors a macro-level perspective on potential price movements, though as with all financial forecasts, various factors beyond money supply could influence the actual outcome.