Support at $100,000 Strengthens, Reducing the Probability of a Deep Correction
Bitcoin reached $108,000 on May 21, coming within just 1.5% of its all-time high established in January 2025. Amid strengthening bullish momentum, leading analysts are revising their forecasts upward, pointing to the possibility of “explosive” growth to $116,000-$128,000 in the near term. At the same time, strengthening support around the $100,000 level makes a deep correction unlikely, creating particularly favorable technical conditions for the continuation of the upward trend.
Bitcoin a Step Away from a New Historical Record
After several months of consolidation, Bitcoin finally overcame the psychologically important barrier of $108,000, for the first time since setting the current all-time high in January. According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, to achieve a new record, the first cryptocurrency needs to surpass the $109,356 mark (based on Bitstamp exchange data).
This movement was accompanied by increased volatility: after breaking through the $108,000 level, the BTC price immediately corrected by almost $1,000, reflecting market nervousness near key resistance levels. Nevertheless, order book data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows strengthening bid support just below the $106,000 level, indicating strong buyer interest.
“It’s always a good morning with Bitcoin at $108,000 and close to a new ATH,” noted Michaël van de Poppe, a well-known crypto trader and analyst. According to him, breaking the previous record is happening “faster than he expected,” which may signal a stronger bullish impulse than most market participants anticipated.
Technical Analysis: Strong Support Levels Reduce the Likelihood of a Deep Correction
Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, highlighted several key support levels that could play a significant role in case of a correction. These include several moving averages, the psychological $100,000 mark, and the 2025 opening level.
The closest of these supports, the 21-day moving average, was at $101,640 on the day of publication. Particularly important is the level where several technical indicators converge:
“The 50-Day MA is on a trajectory to Golden Cross with the 200-Day MA in a tight range that has confluence with the Trend Line AND the 2025 YO,” Alan wrote in his latest post on X.
“You can’t really ask for stronger technical support than that.”
Alan argued that a deeper retracement to support levels would strengthen Bitcoin’s overall recovery and help boost the odds of holding higher levels going forward. However, he noted that the probability of such a scenario is decreasing:
“I’d personally consider a dump to that level a gift, but at this point I don’t think it’s a likely one. In fact the further the 21-Day MA (green) gets from $100k, the less likely we are to get the support test I’ve been looking for,” he concluded.
“Whether BTC retests $100k or not, I’m happy to see consolidation in this range before the next leg up.”
Van de Poppe holds similar views on support levels. His latest analysis features the $91,800 and $100,700 marks, with the latter described as a “point of interest.”
Immediate Targets: From $116,000 to a “Blow-Off Top” at $128,000
As Bitcoin approaches its all-time high, traders and analysts are formulating target levels for the next growth phase. Notably, most forecasts converge on the $116,000-$128,000 range as the next significant target.
Trader Merlijn agrees with the $116,000 target as the next short-term BTC price objective, seeing BTC/USD “exploding” out of a consolidation pennant, a technical analysis formation often preceding a strong price movement.
Fellow trader Henry upped the target to $128,000, identifying it as a “blow-off top,” while identifying support areas at $105,000 and $96,000. The term “blow-off top” in technical analysis refers to a situation where an asset shows a sharp and significant increase before a correction occurs.
Van de Poppe said in a separate X post that targets from $120,000 to $200,000 are “imminent,” though closer levels will likely be reached first.
Context and Long-Term Prospects
Bitcoin’s current movement occurs against a backdrop of growing institutional adoption and positive macroeconomic signals. Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract significant capital volumes, and recent volatility in stock markets has prompted many investors to seek alternative assets for hedging.
“We’re observing a classic pre-breakout consolidation,” explains Jason Delorié, crypto analyst and founder of Quantum Economics. “When a major asset like Bitcoin approaches an all-time high, there’s often some resistance and nervousness. However, given the strength of the current trend and macro background, I expect this level to be overcome in the coming days, which could trigger a significant FOMO reaction from retail investors.”
Delorié also notes that the current market cycle has structural differences from previous ones due to more active participation from institutional investors, which could lead to less volatile but more sustainable growth.
It’s important to note that despite optimistic forecasts, cryptocurrency markets remain high-risk and subject to sudden corrections. Exceeding the historical maximum may trigger profit-taking by some long-term holders, which could lead to temporary pullbacks.
Nevertheless, the consensus among analysts points to an overall bullish sentiment and expectations of new highs in the near future. Breaking the all-time high will be an important psychological victory for the Bitcoin market and could open the way to higher levels that experts are talking about.
As one analyst concluded: “Exceeding the previous maximum is not just a numerical achievement; it’s a confirmation of the long-term bullish trend and a sign of market maturity. In perspective, this could lead to a reassessment of the fundamental valuations of Bitcoin as an asset class.”