Former BitMEX CEO Predicts Growth to $150,000 by Year-End

Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, offered an optimistic forecast regarding Bitcoin’s future at the Token2049 conference in Dubai. According to him, the first cryptocurrency has every chance of reaching $150,000 by the end of the year, representing a potential growth of more than 50% from current levels. The key driver of this rally, according to Hayes, will be the policy of the US Federal Reserve, which may be forced to ease monetary conditions amid growing economic uncertainty. Such a scenario, the expert believes, will create the perfect environment for the growth of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Monetary Policy as a Catalyst for Cryptocurrency Rally

Hayes draws parallels between the current situation and the third quarter of 2022, when the risk asset market showed substantial growth amid monetary policy easing. “The rally sentiment is ideal, just like in the third quarter of 2022. Then we saw risk assets rise on the back of monetary policy easing. Now—it’s a similar situation,” he noted in an interview with the Crypto Banter channel on YouTube.

Hayes’ main thesis is that in conditions of economic fear and uncertainty, US authorities will be forced to resort to printing money, which traditionally makes risk assets more attractive. History shows that Bitcoin is particularly sensitive to changes in US monetary policy, showing significant growth during periods of interest rate cuts and increased liquidity.

“Every Bitcoin rally cycle has been connected in some way to changes in the monetary policy of leading central banks,” comments Alexei Petrov, financial analyst and cryptocurrency expert. “The most striking examples are the explosive growth of 2017, which coincided with a period of loose monetary policy, and the bull trend of 2021 amid unprecedented economic stimulus during the pandemic.”

The Fed’s recent decision to leave the key rate unchanged has already had a positive impact on the cryptocurrency market—Bitcoin rose 1.5% to reach $96,230. This, according to Hayes, is just the beginning of a more substantial upward movement that could lead to new historical maximums.

“The Federal Reserve is now in a difficult situation: on one hand, inflation remains above the target, on the other—there are signs of slowing economic growth,” explains Maria Ivanova, international financial market analyst. “In such conditions, the probability of policy easing to stimulate the economy indeed increases, which could become a powerful catalyst for the cryptocurrency market.”

Institutional Investors and ETFs as a Stability Factor

One of the key differences in the current cycle from previous ones is the significantly higher level of institutional participation in the cryptocurrency market. Hayes notes that the inflow of capital into Bitcoin increased notably after the approval of spot ETFs at the beginning of last year.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are financial instruments that allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin through traditional brokerage accounts, without the need to store cryptocurrency themselves. These instruments track the price of Bitcoin in real-time and have significantly simplified access to the first cryptocurrency for ordinary investors.

“The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US was a turning point that opened access to this asset class for a wide range of institutional investors who previously could not invest in cryptocurrencies due to regulatory restrictions or storage issues,” notes Dmitry Volkov, managing partner of cryptocurrency fund Digital Assets Capital. “This has created a new, more stable source of demand for Bitcoin, which is likely to only strengthen in conditions of macroeconomic uncertainty.”

According to analytical agencies, since the launch of spot ETFs in early 2024, they have attracted over $15 billion in investments, creating significant buyer pressure on the Bitcoin market. This structural shift is viewed by many analysts as confirmation of the long-term institutionalization of the cryptocurrency market.

“Now we are observing fundamentally different dynamics compared to previous cycles,” continues Volkov. “If previously the market was largely driven by retail speculators, now long-term institutional investors are playing an increasingly important role, for whom Bitcoin is becoming part of a diversified portfolio.”

Altcoin Prospects and Forecast Risks

According to Hayes, Bitcoin’s growth will inevitably cause a rise in the altcoin market as well, primarily in leading projects such as Ethereum and Solana. These cryptocurrencies typically follow Bitcoin’s movements but with greater volatility, which could provide higher returns for investors willing to accept increased risk.

“Historically, altcoins demonstrate higher beta to Bitcoin during bull markets,” explains Anna Semenova, cryptocurrency market analyst. “If Hayes’ forecast of Bitcoin’s rise to $150,000 materializes, we could well see even more impressive results from Ethereum, Solana, and other leading altcoins.”

However, despite the optimistic forecast, Hayes acknowledges the risks to its realization. Short-term predictions in the cryptocurrency market often prove inaccurate due to high volatility and many unpredictable factors affecting prices.

“Bitcoin forecasts are often either too optimistic or too pessimistic,” warns Sergei Kozlov, independent financial consultant. “Even experienced market participants such as Arthur Hayes can overestimate the short-term growth potential. Investors should remember that Bitcoin remains a highly volatile asset, and any investment decisions should be made within an overall risk management strategy.”

Among the main risks for the realization of Hayes’ optimistic scenario, experts note the possible tightening of cryptocurrency regulation in the US and other key jurisdictions, potential deterioration of the economic situation that could lead to a large-scale sell-off of risk assets, as well as technical risks related to the security and scalability of blockchain networks.

“Certainly, Bitcoin has the potential for significant growth in the long term, especially given its limited supply and growing institutional recognition,” concludes Kozlov. “However, short-term price forecasts should be taken with a certain degree of skepticism, understanding that the market can move in unpredictable directions.”

Regardless of the accuracy of Hayes’ forecast, his optimistic position reflects the growing confidence of many institutional players in the long-term prospects of the first cryptocurrency, especially in conditions of increasing global macroeconomic instability.