Key Points:
- Real Vision founder Raoul Pal forecasts Bitcoin to exceed $140,000 by July 2025
- Global money supply (M2) metric suggests 28% upside from current levels
- The same metric correctly predicted April’s correction to $75,000
- Pal expects Bitcoin to eventually outperform the M2 metric as market FOMO builds
- Current BTC price stands at $109,350 (as of May 24, 2025)
Global Money Supply Metric Signals Strong Bitcoin Upside
Real Vision founder and macro expert Raoul Pal has issued a bullish prediction for Bitcoin, forecasting that the leading cryptocurrency will surge past $140,000 by July 2025.
In a recent YouTube video shared with his 236,000 subscribers, Pal emphasized that the global money supply (Global M2) metric shows a strong correlation with Bitcoin’s price movements. According to his analysis, this metric is currently signaling potential for approximately 28% upside from Bitcoin’s current trading level.
Pal’s analysis: “But at this point, it’s [the price of Bitcoin] really driven by liquidity. It gave us a three-month heads up to exactly the correction [of around $75,000 in April]. And yet Twitter said it’s about tariffs, it’s about the end of the world. It told you, it is telling you, and told you it would be at all-time highs. I told you it would be at all-time highs by May. It tells you we should be over $140,000 by July.”
Market Cycle Dynamics and Future Decoupling
Pal further elaborated on his expectation that Bitcoin will eventually decouple from the global money supply metric as the market cycle progresses. This decoupling, he suggests, will initially favor Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency outperforming the Global M2 metric.
The macro expert explained this typical market cycle pattern:
- Initial correlation with global liquidity (current phase)
- Outperformance phase as retail investors enter and FOMO intensifies
- Underperformance phase when market sentiment shifts to fear
“I also know it will decouple later in the cycle, and it will decouple to the upside with Bitcoin outperforming Global M2. That’s how it works when the crowd comes in, the herd gets FOMO (fear of missing out), they get greedy, and it actually starts outperforming. Then, when the market flips, it eventually starts to underperform as fear kicks in.”
Recent Price Action and Target Analysis
Bitcoin is currently trading at $109,350, representing a significant recovery from April’s correction to $75,000. For Pal’s prediction of $140,000+ by July to materialize, Bitcoin would need to gain approximately $30,650 over the next 5-6 weeks.
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $109,350 | As of May 24, 2025 |
| Predicted Target | $140,000+ | By July 2025 |
| Required Growth | ~28% | In approximately 5-6 weeks |
| Previous Correction | $75,000 | April 2025 |
Implications for Market Participants
Pal’s analysis suggests that market liquidity remains the dominant driver of Bitcoin’s price action in the current phase of the market cycle. His accurate prediction of May’s all-time highs lends credibility to his forecast for continued upside through July.
For investors and traders, this perspective offers a framework for understanding how macro liquidity conditions might influence cryptocurrency markets in the coming months, while also preparing for potential shifts in market dynamics as retail participation potentially increases.